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Comments and Forecast

09.04.2008	Inflation hike may pose significant risks for macroeconomic stability — Raiffeisen Bank Aval Analyst
07.02.2008	WTO membership will spur economic growth in Ukraine and raise consumer welfare, — Raiffeisen Bank Aval analyst
15.01.2008	Inflation of 10.5% is expected in 2008. — Raiffeisen Bank Aval analyst
14.01.2008	2008 budget looks realistic and doesn’t envisage the significant fiscal expansion — Raiffeisen Bank Aval analyst
12.12.2007	The increase in import gas price in 2008 will have limited negative effect on macroeconomic indicators, — Raiffeisen Bank Aval Analyst Import gas price for Ukraine is set at the level of USD 179.5 per 1000 cm in 2008, while transit fee is raised from USD 1.6 to 1.7 per 1000 cm transportation for 100 km. So, next year the price of imported gas will rise for 38% (from USD 130 in 2007) that adds around USD 2.7 bln to total import bill, while increase in transit fee will bring additional income of USD 120-130 mln.
08.11.2007	Inflation upsurge in 2007 represents the main macroeconomic risk for Ukraine in near future, — Raiffeisen Bank Aval Analyst
23.10.2007	Exchange rate will remain stable in short-run perspective — Raiffeisen Bank Aval Analyst Kyiv. 23 October. — In opinion of Raiffeisen Bank Aval experts, despite intensifying talks about forthcoming hryvnia appreciation hryvnia will remain stable at least in short-run.
16.10.2007	The planned increase of the NBU discount rate is likely to have no effect on macroeconomic indicators Kyiv. 16 October. — The increase of the NBU discount rate as a reaction to the recent inflation upsurge would not have much impact on inflation and GDP growth, Analyst of Raiffeisen Bank Aval said. In contrast to matured economies, where policy rate of the Central Bank is a key instrument for policymakers, in Ukraine there is almost no relation between NBU policy rate and main economic indicators due to a number of reasons:
11.10.2007	USD/EUR exchange rate is likely to fluctuate around 1.4 level in short-term perspective — Analyst of Raiffeisen Bank Aval said Kyiv. 11 October. — The dollar/euro exchange rate has recently fallen to historical lows and now is lower than 1.4 USD per EUR. Dimitry Sologoub, Analyst of Raiffeisen Bank Aval, considers further dollar weakening against euro as unrealistic because of several factors.

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